A stochastic model to estimate wind farm penalties for ramp-rate violations
In this talk, we introduce a novel methodology to simulate the discounted penalties incurred by wind farm operators for violating ramp-rate limitations. Our approach models a wind turbine connected to a battery system, which dynamically stores or supplies energy to mitigate ramp-up and ramp-down events. The battery's operational states — charging, discharging, and neutral — are represented as a semi-Markov process, while energy fluctuations within these states follow a modified Brownian bridge governed by three key parameters. We validate our framework on 10 years of real wind-power data and comparing real versus simulated results.
Keywords: Brownian Bridge Semi-Markov processes Wind Energy Battery Penalties