N. Zhou, J. L. Vilar Zanón
Climate change risk is looming as a concern for insurers due to its impact on insured losses and business sustainability. Building on the North American Actuarial Climate Index™(ACI), this research develops and applies actuarial climate indices for the Iberian Peninsula and Spain : the Iberian Actuarial Climate Index (IACI), the Spanish Actuarial Climate Index (SACI) and the provincial scaled version (pSACI). Focusing on Spain’s wine-grape insurance by using claims data from 1990 to 2022 furnished by AGROSEGURO, we use linear and quantile regression, , generalized linear mixed models, and linear quantile mixed models to quantify how these climate indices correlate with claim frequencies and losses. Our findings highlight significant regional variability and underscore the need for underwriting strategies following Solvency II and ORSA lines. Our takeaway is a province-level monetization of climate change effects on insurance premiums and solvency capital requirements.
Keywords: "Climate change", "Agricultural Insurance", "climate change monetization"
Scheduled
AR1 Risk analysis I
June 12, 2025 11:30 AM
MR 1