Fertility Rate Estimation: Combining Functional Data and Small Area Models

E. López Vizcaíno, M. J. Lombardía Cortiña, C. Rueda Sabater

Accurate fertility rate estimation at the municipal level is essential for demographic planning and policy-making, yet small-area projections remain methodologically challenging due to data sparsity and variability.
This study addresses these challenges by integrating Functional Data Analysis and Small Area Estimation techniques to improve fertility rate estimates in Galician municipalities from 2002 to 2022.
We introduce a novel Frequency Modulated Mobius (FMM) model, which provides a flexible and interpretable approach for modeling fertility trends. The proposed methodology is evaluated against existing estimation techniques. Simulation experiments and real data analysis demonstrate that FMM models, outperform alternative methods, offering smoother fertility curves and lower estimation errors (RMSE).
Additionally, we apply the proposed models for fertility forecasting, revealing a continued decline in fertility rates and a shift toward later childbearing across municipalities.

Keywords: Fertility rates, functional data, Frequency Modulated Mobius Model, Fay-Herriot model, small area estimation

Mixt Models
June 13, 2025  11:00 AM
Auditorio 2. Leandre Cristòfol

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